A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
