🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Participant Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Changing Odds in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and made four bets, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Trading information shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the characteristics of a bet based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are growing concerned. A bill introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. Market Background Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to current affairs. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry. A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."