Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
